How I Use Kalshi
Padilla's Corner
“How I Use Kalshi”
As many of our readers know, I have been tracking the progress of the Prediction Markets for the last few years and wrote a note on our Substack last year: “Along Came Poly”
https://whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com/p/regulatory-arbitrage-in-the-online
My original angle focused on how disruptive this emerging sector would be to incumbent online sportsbooks (OSBs). Specifically, I looked at the impact prediction markets would have on some of the most profitable products offered by the likes of DraftKings and FanDuel, such as “in-game live wagering,” “cashouts,” and parlays. Beyond product disruption, the ability for companies like Kalshi to offer contracts in all 50 states to anyone 18 years and older creates significant challenges for OSBs regarding their Total Addressable Market (TAM)—especially in states like California and Texas, where the promise of legalized online sports wagering remains on the table. Suffice it to say, the stock prices of DKNG and FLUT have suffered due to the rise of Kalshi and its peers.